Information checked on: 3 August 2026. Figures below are drawn from the Housing Industry Association’s Trades Availability Index (June quarter 2026, published 28 July 2026), the Victorian Skills Plan 2025–26 construction fact sheet, Victoria’s Big Build, and Queensland Audit Office and Construction Skills Queensland data cited via QLD2032. Quarterly and project data changes often — check the original sources linked at the end of this article before making decisions.
Two of the largest construction programs in Australian history are running at exactly the same time, in two different states — and both are short of exactly the same tradespeople. Victoria’s Big Build is a $100 billion transport construction pipeline already employing more than 20,000 people directly. Queensland’s infrastructure build-up toward the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games sits inside a $153 billion pipeline running through 2029. Neither program is close to fully staffed.
For a student choosing or currently studying a Certificate III in a building trade in Melbourne or Brisbane, this isn’t background noise. It means genuine, structural demand for skilled trades in both cities for years to come — not a short-lived spike tied to one event. Here’s what the numbers actually show, and what they mean practically.
Two Mega-Pipelines, Running at Once
Victoria’s Big Build
Victoria’s Big Build covers more than 180 major road and rail projects, including the Metro Tunnel, the Suburban Rail Loop, the West Gate Tunnel, North East Link and Melbourne Airport Rail. According to Victoria’s Big Build, the program currently has more than 20,000 people working directly on its projects, and at least 10% of labour hours across the program are reserved for trainees and apprentices.
The Victorian Skills Plan 2025–26 construction fact sheet projects the state’s broader construction sector will need 64,500 new workers between 2025 and 2028 — a figure covering housing, commercial building and infrastructure, not just Big Build projects themselves. Carpenters and joiners currently earn a median $87,000 annually in Victoria, according to the same fact sheet, with painting trades workers on a median $74,000.
Queensland’s Road to 2032
Queensland’s picture is even tighter. The Queensland Audit Office’s December 2025 Major Projects report put the state’s confirmed infrastructure pipeline at $116.8 billion over four years, within a $153 billion pipeline running through 2029 — a mix of Brisbane 2032 Games venues, transport works like Cross River Rail and Brisbane Metro, and non-Games projects such as Borumba Pumped Hydro and CopperString.
Construction Skills Queensland’s Horizon 2032 modelling, cited by the Queensland Building and Construction Commission, projects the state needs an average of 18,200 additional construction workers every year for the next eight years — with a peak shortfall of around 50,000 workers in 2026–27 specifically. Just 6% of Queensland’s 122,000-plus licensed building practitioners are under 30, and the average licence-holder is nearly 49 years old.
The Shortage Numbers, Side by Side
The Housing Industry Association’s Trades Availability Index gives the clearest current snapshot of how hard it actually is to find a tradesperson right now. A score of zero means trades are in balance; the further below zero, the tighter the shortage. HIA’s most recent release, covering the June quarter of 2026 and published 28 July 2026, shows:
| Location | HIA index (June quarter 2026) | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | -0.45 | Moderate shortage |
| Regional Victoria | -0.12 | Closest to balance |
| Brisbane | -0.60 | Tighter shortage |
| Regional Queensland | -1.15 | Most acute shortage nationally |
| National average | -0.59 | Structural shortage |
| Trade | HIA index (June quarter 2026) |
|---|---|
| Bricklaying | -1.02 |
| Ceramic tiling | -0.96 |
| Roofing | -0.83 |
| Carpentry | -0.80 |
| Site preparation | -0.17 |
| Electrical | -0.19 |
HIA’s Senior Economist noted that even a recent softening in housing market activity hasn’t resolved the underlying structural skills shortage, with trade prices rising 5.1% in the first half of 2026 alone — the fastest pace since 2022.
Quick read: Every structural trade linked to Evantaa’s Certificate III qualifications — bricklaying, tiling, carpentry, plastering — is currently sitting in shortage territory nationally, in both Melbourne and Brisbane, with regional Queensland the tightest market in the country.
Why Two States Chasing the Same Tradespeople Matters for You
When two states run major building programs at once, they’re effectively drawing from the same national pool of qualified trades. A handful of things follow from that:
- Your qualification travels. Trade qualifications delivered under the national Vocational Education and Training framework — including Evantaa’s Certificate III and Certificate IV building and construction courses — are recognised Australia-wide, not just in the state where you trained. A carpentry qualification completed in Melbourne carries the same standing in Brisbane, and vice versa.
- Demand isn’t tied to one event. Brisbane 2032 gets the headlines, but Queensland’s shortfall is already peaking now, years before the Games. Victoria’s Big Build has no single “finish line” event at all — level crossing removals alone are scheduled through 2032. Students starting a trade in 2026 are training into a multi-year demand curve in either city, not a short-term rush.
- Conditions differ city to city, and they shift. Right now, regional Queensland’s shortage is markedly tighter than anywhere in Victoria, and Brisbane’s is somewhat tighter than Melbourne’s. That can matter if you’re weighing up where to complete practical placements or start your career after graduating — though it’s worth remembering these figures move every quarter, so it’s a snapshot, not a fixed rule.
- It’s still not a guarantee. A structural shortage across an industry is genuinely useful context. It is not a promise of a job, a wage, a licence or a placement for any individual student — Evantaa Institute does not offer employment or income guarantees tied to any course.
Which Evantaa Qualifications Connect to This Pipeline
| Shortage area | Related Evantaa qualification |
|---|---|
| Carpentry | Certificate III in Carpentry |
| Bricklaying | Certificate III in Bricklaying and Blocklaying |
| Wall and floor tiling | Certificate III in Wall and Floor Tiling |
| Solid plastering | Certificate III in Solid Plastering |
| Cabinet making | Certificate III in Cabinet Making and Timber Technology |
| Site supervision, estimating, project coordination | Certificate IV in Building and Construction |
| Business and operations side of construction firms | Diploma of Business / Advanced Diploma of Business |
HIA’s public index doesn’t currently break out separate figures for cabinet making or painting and decorating, so this dataset can’t confirm exactly where those two trades sit on the same shortage scale — worth keeping in mind if you’re comparing all of Evantaa’s trade options side by side.
What This Means If You’re Choosing or Studying a Trade Right Now
- Don’t over-index on one city’s numbers. Both Melbourne and Brisbane are short on structural trades right now. Choose your campus based on where you actually want to live and study, not on chasing whichever city’s shortage looks tightest this quarter.
- Ask Evantaa’s Student Services about practical training timing. Understanding when your placements fall relative to major project milestones can help you plan, though outcomes still depend on individual employers and roles.
- Keep evidence of your practical skills as you go. In a market this tight, a clear record of what you’ve actually done on the tools is more useful to a future employer than shortage statistics alone.
- If you’re considering an interstate move after graduating, remember your qualification is portable — but always confirm licensing and registration requirements with the relevant state authority (the Victorian Building Authority or the QBCC) rather than assuming.
- Check the data yourself before making decisions. HIA publishes its Trades Report quarterly at hia.com.au, and both state governments publish infrastructure pipeline updates directly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this shortage mean I’m guaranteed a job after finishing my Certificate III?
No. Industry-wide shortage data reflects conditions across the whole sector at a point in time. It is not a guarantee of employment, wages or placement for any individual student, and Evantaa Institute does not offer any such guarantee.
Is Brisbane’s shortage really about the Olympics, or something bigger?
Bigger. Brisbane 2032 venues are one part of a much larger $153 billion Queensland infrastructure pipeline that includes rail, energy and other non-Games projects. The workforce shortfall was already building well before Games-specific construction ramped up.
Can I use a Victorian trade qualification to work in Queensland, or the other way around?
Trade qualifications delivered under the national VET framework are recognised Australia-wide. Always confirm any state-specific licensing or registration requirements directly with the Victorian Building Authority or the Queensland Building and Construction Commission before starting work in a new state.
Which trade currently has the tightest shortage?
Nationally, bricklaying (-1.02) and ceramic tiling (-0.96) are the two tightest trades in HIA’s June quarter 2026 index, with carpentry close behind at -0.80.
Where can I check the latest figures myself?
HIA’s Trades Report is published quarterly at hia.com.au. Victoria’s Big Build publishes project updates at bigbuild.vic.gov.au, and Queensland’s infrastructure pipeline is tracked via the Queensland Audit Office and the Queensland Government’s Delivering 2032 site.
Final Thoughts
Victoria’s Big Build and Queensland’s build-up to 2032 are two of the biggest construction programs Australia has ever run, happening in parallel, and both are short on the same core trades. For students training in carpentry, bricklaying, tiling, plastering or cabinet making in Melbourne or Brisbane right now, that’s a genuinely strong backdrop — sustained demand across two major markets, with a qualification that travels between them. It’s context for a decision, not a guarantee of an outcome, but it’s useful, current context worth understanding before you choose a course.
Explore Evantaa Institute’s current trade and construction qualifications in Melbourne and Brisbane, or get in touch with Student Services to talk through which pathway fits your goals.
Sources
- Housing Industry Association, Tradie shortages remain entrenched despite housing market uncertainty (28 July 2026)
- Housing Industry Association, Trades Report (data & forecasts hub)
- Victoria State Government, Victorian Skills Plan 2025–26 — construction fact sheet
- Victoria’s Big Build, About us
- QLD2032, Queensland’s 50,000 construction worker shortfall, citing Queensland Audit Office Major Projects 2025 Report (December 2025) and Construction Skills Queensland Horizon 2032
- Queensland Building and Construction Commission, Queensland’s building workforce is ageing (3 December 2025)
- Evantaa Institute, Our Courses